PREDICTABLE SURPRISES

9/11 Was Preceded by a stream of warning signs in the years and months leading up to the disaster. Yet when the attacks occurred, leaders at every level were taken by surprise. A lack of auditor independence and creative accounting procedures have long been tagged as 'ticking time bombs' in the financial markets. However, when Enron toppled, it sent shockwaves through Wall Street-and the world. Why do leaders consistently ignore looming signs of crises even when they know the consequences could be devastating? Renowned decision-making experts Max Bazerman and Michael Watkins argue that 'predictable surprises' - events that catch leaders off guard even though they had all the information necessary to anticipate them-represent a pervasive failure of leadership that holds grave consequences for individuals, organizations, and society.