Imagine that two doctors in the same city give different diagnoses to identical patients – or that two judges in the same court give different sentences to people who have committed matching crimes. Now imagine that the same doctor and the same judge make different decisions depending on whether it is morning or afternoon, or Monday rather than Wednesday, or they haven’t yet had lunch. These are examples of noise: variability in judgements that should be identical. In Noise, Daniel Kahneman, Olivier Sibony and Cass R. Sunstein show how noise produces errors in many fields, including in medicine, law, public health, economic forecasting, forensic science, child protection, creative strategy, performance review and hiring. And although noise can be found wherever people are making judgements and decisions, individuals and organizations alike commonly ignore its impact, at great cost. Packed with new ideas, and drawing on the same kind of sharp analysis and breadth of case study that made Thinking, Fast and Slow and Nudge international bestsellers, Noise explains how and why humans are so susceptible to noise and bias in decision-making. We all make bad judgements more than we think. With a few simple remedies, this groundbreaking book explores what we can do to make better ones.
Noise - A Flaw in Human Judgment
Daniel Kahneman
William Collins
2021
464 páginas
15h 28m
ISBN-13: 9780008534448
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Daniel Kahneman
Nascido em Israel em 1934, é professor emérito de psicologia da Universidade de Princeton e professor emérito de psicologia e relações públicas da Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs de Princeton. Recebeu o Prêmio Nobel de Economia em 2002 por sua obra pioneira com Amos Tversky sobre processos de tomada de decisão.
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